Ten Day Snowfall Guess
We sure hope it snows as much in November as it did in October!
It snowed 12 days in a row to end October, we have already measured 30 inches of snow so far this season!!
October snow is not usually helpful in November because it too warm this time of year to maintain a snow pack. But it sure made us feel good and a lot of people got out and made some pre-Halloween turns.
JPR Mountain operations got serious though early Friday November 4th. Following a mild rainy Thursday the temperature dropped enough that snow guns were turned on for the first time.. on The Jet Trail.
Unfortunately the weather pattern is not too favorable for snow the next 10 days or so, but much can & will change before opening day.
What we are experiencing weatherwise lately is called a high amplitude flow, with a lot of high latitude blocking.
We had a persistent trough (cold) here to end October, now we have a brief trough (cool) to begin November, being replaced by ridging (mild to warm) through about November 15th.
The biggest feature on the map in the northern hemisphere is the extreme cold in northern Eurasia, and a series of powerhouse storms south of Alaska.
This set up leaves most of the cold locked on the other side of the world, as the Pacific storm pushes warmth across much of southern Canada and the Lower 48.
We do have blocking in the north Atlantic that’s why were getting clipped by a cold shot this weekend, the only place cold enough to make snow right now is here in the Northeast.
We even have a sporadic Jay Cloud through the weekend, so it will look like winter up on the mountain. But snowfall will not match the tremendous output we had to end October.
There are signs that the cold will rebuild on our side of the north pole towards the middle of the month, likely some incursion into the northeast of the first real arctic air somewhere around November 20.
We should be able to bring some moisture from the south by time, for more widespread type snowfall before Thanksgiving.
But we do need to be concerned, this stretch of weather coming in here for the next 10 days will make continuous snowmaking impossible, we just have to hope (more likely than not) for a few windows later in the week and next weekend.
The overall outlook for the winter is for a storm track coming back to a more traditional low-pressure systems moving close to Cape Cod. Last year it seemed all the storms either went up to Ontario and we got warm, or went off well out into the ocean. We did have a nice comeback in the late winter. This year, I believe we are not going to have to wait as long. I like what I’m seeing so far with the return of our frequent precipitation and the few cold incursions we’ve already had.
One of my favorite resources for long-range prediction is Joe D’Aleo at Weatherbell.com, one of his analog years is 1995/96, another 2014/15. Those were strong winters here in the Northeast. Unfortunately another analog is 1982/83 a warm winter, I hope we can throw that one away.
It’s great to be back another season here at Jay Peak Resort Mountain Weather, I hope to see you all the ski show next week and then see you on the slopes for opening day November 25th.