Massachusetts Bayside Backyard Forecast 1.22.2016

Scituate Tide Chart & Forecast as of 9pm Friday January 22nd.
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See more recent graphic on the bottom of surfskiweather/surf page.

Standing next to a new repair of The Scituate Massachusetts Seawall (and in his cellar), Tim Kelley offers some behind the scenes perspective to the pending Nor’easter. He talks about the challenge of the snowfall predictions along with prospects for coastal flooding, Also some old school insight from former Boston TV meteorologist Bob Copeland.

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Thank you to Bob Thompson & All at The National Weather Service Office Taunton Massachusetts for this analysis of the flood threat in eastern Massachusetts:

SAT LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE…

THIS TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICALLY…NEAR 11 FEET MLLW
AT BOSTON. UNLESS THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE FASTER THAN
FORECAST…WE DO NOT THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SURGE AND WAVE
ACTION TO RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR SPLASHOVER IF THAT.

LATE SAT EVENING HIGH TIDE…

WE EXPECT AN INCREASING SURGE AND BUILDING SEAS FOR THIS HIGH
TIDE…BUT IT IS QUITE LOW ASTRONOMICALLY. AT THIS TIME…WE
ANTICIPATE ONLY SOME SPLASH OVER IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE E AND NE
FACING SHORELINES.

SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG RI COAST…

SPLASHOVER AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RI EXPOSED S AND SE FACING SHORELINES AND BLOCK
ISLAND. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH ON THIS BUT BELIEVE MINOR
IMPACT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURGE AROUND OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET AND LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING ONTO THE
COAST. THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE RI COAST SUNDAY MORNING OCCURS
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF 8 AM.

SUNDAY MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE ALONG E COAST MA…

THIS IS THE HIGH TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR E AND N FACING
SHORELINES. ANTICIPATE MINOR IMPACTS N OF BOSTON AND MINOR TO
MODERATE IMPACTS S OF BOSTON. THERE IS ENOUGH RISK OF IMPACTS IN
THE MODERATE RANGE TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST…CAPE COD N AND E FACING
SHORELINES…AND NANTUCKET. WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERITY OF COASTAL
IMPACTS…TRACK AND ESPECIALLY TIMING ARE DETERMINING FACTORS.

THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
ASTRONOMICALLY ALONG THE MA E COAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS HIGH
TIDE…THE WIND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BACKING FROM NNE TO N
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN SPEED. HOWEVER…GALE AND EVEN
MARGINAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PRIOR 18 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS A
SIZABLE FETCH OF OCEAN WILL HAVE RESULTED IN A SURGE OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND SEAS 15 TO 25 FEET SEVERAL MILES OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURGE AND SEAS SUBSIDE
BY THE TIME OF THE SUNDAY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A SURGE OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AND SEAS STILL 12 TO
15 FEET N OF BOSTON MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. S OF BOSTON…ANTICIPATING A SURGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 2
FEET ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY COAST AND ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO
2.8 FEET SANDWICH TO DENNIS AND NANTUCKET HARBOR. THINK THAT SEAS
IN MASS BAY AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD BAY MAY STILL BE 14 TO 18
FEET NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BUT IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING.
NOTE THAT A N WIND IS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE FOR THE SANDWICH TO
DENNIS STRETCH OF COASTLINE AND NANTUCKET HARBOR WHERE WE HAVE THE
HIGHER SURGE VALUES. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE SOONER…THEN
IMPACTS WILL BE LESS. IF THE STORM PULLS OUT A LITTLE LATER…THEN
IMPACTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT GREATER.

MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN FOR BEACH EROSION INCLUDE THE N SIDE OF
CAPE COD…MAINLY SANDWICH TO EASTHAM AS WELL AS THE OUTER
CAPE…INCLUDING CHATHAM…AND THE E SIDE OF NANTUCKET. MODERATE
TO POCKETS OF SEVERE EROSION ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION. TO THE N
OF BOSTON…MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE PLUM ISLAND AREA.

Bob also nice enough to send us a note of caution: As always stay close to our feeds..
“.. a lot that can go wrong with this forecast. However, the timing of the computer models seem to be consistent enough to suggest that we should dodge a blockbuster coastal flood event and so any moderate coastal flooding on Sunday is more likely to be on the lower end rather than upper end of moderate.”


Comments

Massachusetts Bayside Backyard Forecast 1.22.2016 — 2 Comments

  1. Having leaned about weather from Don Kent and his chalk board back in the 50s & early 60s, I eat this stuff up. In addition this is especially interesting because of what I think could be a great time to show there world that WADs will kill those pesky anticipated waves. But not this time, maybe later.

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