Little help from a NorLun friend – Boston Blizzard Feb 14, 2015

Upon arrival to NECN 5am, the first email is a note from Weir Lundtsedt, author of Windex and NorLun trough snow set ups. Sent 1:30 this morning. A bit obsessed! In a Good way, thanks Weir. Shown here Tuesday at Sunapee NH.
FWLStoweFeb112015
WL:
Since I know you will be a busy man tomorrow at work,  thought I would share a few thoughts to help with your situational awareness during day.  Feel free to agree
or disagree,  I think radar will help verify/or debunk what I am thinking as we progress during day.  Should be fun.  The stuff I am talking about here is the mesoscale  issues
with this storm,  the synoptic scale could be problematic late tonight and sunday as to how far and intense the banding on back side of storm becomes.  NYC comes to
mind during first blizzard,  when they got most of there 10″ on front side,  but missed the 2 feet because banding never progressed westward enough!
1)  First..  NAM bufkit soundings are super impressive over se NH and sw Maine for enhancement to snow due to ocean effect starting tomorrow afternoon, but
                 most impressive tomorrow evening between 00Z-06Z  With this vertical motion I could easily see 1-2″ an hour snow in a narrow band that could extend
                 into Mount Washington Valley and even into Sunday River.  Total precip in 12hr period ending 06z, is a little over .3-.5, which could mean 6-10″ snow even
                 before the significant synoptic scale starts aft 06z.  Unfortunately I think this band could be somewhat narrow similar to norlun trof.. and in some ways
                 it is a Norlun Trof,  as you can see on PWM FOUS winds go from east/southeast at 00z to north/northeast at 06z.
bufkit
NAM
2)  Second..  Another “embedded” Norlun trof  will likely form over NY and somewhere across southern New England tomorrow evening and I think this could bring a burst of some heavy snow
                     in narrow band later in evening,  but there is discrepancy where it will form?  GFS QPF for this feature further north,  which would possibly favor BDL-PVD area.  But NAM is
                     further south which might favor sw CT, and Long Island.  IF I was betting man, I probably would take the latter scenario.  In any event,  would most likely have to be play by play
                     on this one,  and favor sometime later in evening.   This feature would likely last for a few hours then collapse as storm begins to bomb out in Gulf of Maine late at night.
GFS

GFS

gfs2

NAM

Finally,  given the impressive dynamics.. one would have to think nice banding will form for a time across most of eastern New England late Saturday night and into Sunday morning.  I think this
is the best time blizzard conditions will be met (IF at ALL) across southern New England, even though winds will stay strong well into the evening. This storm will come nowhere close to snowfall amounts from first blizzard,  in fact.. I don’t think anyone across southern New England will get more than a foot.  Hopefully I didn’t put my “foot” in my mouth!  LOL
So may final forecast numbers for snowfall:
Merrimack – 9″
Scituate     –   7″
Boston       –   8″
North Conway area.. 14″
Sunday River.. will come in at 16″
Coastal Maine, and especially downeast Maine seems to be jackpot again with 2FT!
Now we just have to wait for late Tuesday/Wednesday storm!  :-)

 


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